Historically, buying Bitcoin 6 months before a block reward halving and selling 12-18 months after it produced staggering, systematic returns. However, with the launch of spot ETFs and massive institutional flows, the cycles are dampening and lengthening.
The Mechanics of the Cycle
Accumulation Phase: Post-bear market. Boring price action, smart money is quietly buying.
Markup Phase (Bull): Driven by the halving supply shock and mainstream media attention. Retail FOMO returns.
Distribution Phase: Smart money slowly unloads on retail buyers who enter late.
Markdown Phase (Bear): The bubble pops. 70-90% drawdowns as weak hands are shaken out.
The Macro Overlap (Global Liquidity)
Crypto acts as a sponge for global fiat liquidity. When central banks (like the US Fed or European Central Bank) lower interest rates and expand M2 money supply, risk-on assets like crypto surge. Therefore, predicting the crypto cycle in 2026 requires predicting central bank liquidity cycles more than the halving code itself.